Political Update

The latest round of primaries took place yesterday with some interesting results. We'll talk first about the SENATE:

Where Dems could pick up a seat:

Most Likely

• Montana - Rep incumbent - race continues to be close. Dem is outpolling the Rep 48%-45% as of Aug 27.
  
• Pennsylvania - Rep incumbent Rick Santorum is getting trounced by Dem challenger Robert Casey 38%-56% in an Aug 27 Gallup Poll. Santorum is the poster-boy for national anger at the Republican party. Too bad, I'll miss his frequent pompous appearances on CSPAN...not.
  

Tossup - ALL THREE seats currently held by Republicans (note that OH has moved into this category...)

• Missouri - Research 2000 Poll shows Dem ahead 47%-46% as of Aug 31
• RI - Dead even Aug 21 - Repub incumbent Lincoln Chafee won the primary and is running dead even with Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse. Chafee is fairly moderate, however, which may cause trouble for Dems wishing to upset him.
  
• OH - Republican incumbent trailing in Aug 27 Gallup Poll 46%-40%. Oh sweet revenge... The Repub incumbent has twice as much cash-on-hand as the Dem here. If you were looking to contribute to a candidate this season, Sherrod Brown might be the one. Make a donation here.
  

A spot of worry?

• NJ - Dem incumbent Robert Menendez is trailing his Repub challenger as of Aug 27 39%-43%. Menendez has nearly three times the cash-on-hand as his opponent and Repubs are unlikely to focus on this race in historically Democratic NJ. Any idea what's going on here, Woody?
  

Now for the HOUSE:

Not much change here. We will, however, move AZ8 from the Tossup column into the Likely Dem column as ultra-Conservative candidate Randy Graf defeated his more moderate counterpart in the primary yesterday. The Democratic candidate suddenly looks much more attractive to the hopefully reasonable people of southern Arizona.

Comments? Can you provide clarification? Let me know.