Quote of the Day

I read this and had to post it to the blog:
At least one U.S. Senator takes the Iranian threat very seriously. "I think he's a Hitler type of person," said Sen. George Voinovich (R.-Ohio) about Iranian President Ahmedinejad, adding, "I call him Ahmed-in-a-head."


- Chabad Chammer

Conspiracy Theory of the Day

I haven't had a good conspiracy theory for a while, and so I thought that I should work on one.

I was reading an article yesterday that said that Jews for Jesus has a budget of 20 million dollars to spread their 'message'. I was trying to figure out how they could raise that much money, and then it came to me. Who is the primary supporter of terrorism in the world right now? Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad! My theory is that this is part of his plot to wipe out Israel. Considering that Iran is currently spending 200 million a year funding terror against the West, this is a subtle and particularly nasty way to gnaw away at the underpinnings of Western society.



- Chabad_Chammer

Political Update

The latest round of primaries took place yesterday with some interesting results. We'll talk first about the SENATE:

Where Dems could pick up a seat:

Most Likely

• Montana - Rep incumbent - race continues to be close. Dem is outpolling the Rep 48%-45% as of Aug 27.
  
• Pennsylvania - Rep incumbent Rick Santorum is getting trounced by Dem challenger Robert Casey 38%-56% in an Aug 27 Gallup Poll. Santorum is the poster-boy for national anger at the Republican party. Too bad, I'll miss his frequent pompous appearances on CSPAN...not.
  

Tossup - ALL THREE seats currently held by Republicans (note that OH has moved into this category...)

• Missouri - Research 2000 Poll shows Dem ahead 47%-46% as of Aug 31
• RI - Dead even Aug 21 - Repub incumbent Lincoln Chafee won the primary and is running dead even with Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse. Chafee is fairly moderate, however, which may cause trouble for Dems wishing to upset him.
  
• OH - Republican incumbent trailing in Aug 27 Gallup Poll 46%-40%. Oh sweet revenge... The Repub incumbent has twice as much cash-on-hand as the Dem here. If you were looking to contribute to a candidate this season, Sherrod Brown might be the one. Make a donation here.
  

A spot of worry?

• NJ - Dem incumbent Robert Menendez is trailing his Repub challenger as of Aug 27 39%-43%. Menendez has nearly three times the cash-on-hand as his opponent and Repubs are unlikely to focus on this race in historically Democratic NJ. Any idea what's going on here, Woody?
  

Now for the HOUSE:

Not much change here. We will, however, move AZ8 from the Tossup column into the Likely Dem column as ultra-Conservative candidate Randy Graf defeated his more moderate counterpart in the primary yesterday. The Democratic candidate suddenly looks much more attractive to the hopefully reasonable people of southern Arizona.

Comments? Can you provide clarification? Let me know.

The War? On Terror

I've heard the same theme about the War on Terror cropping up in various newsradio broadcasts and magazines over the past few weeks - reframing the struggle and declaring victory in the war on terror. I read a very interesting article "Declaring Victory" in The Atlantic Monthly September 2006 issue this past weekend and would urge you to run to the nearest bookstore/magazine stand to pick it up. If, for some reason, you can't do this, email me and I'll send you a copy. We've heard the Republican rhetoric on this for so long, it's exciting to see people standing up and saying "Hey, we're going about this important problem all wrong!" I hope the Dems are paying attention because this type of policy shift could spell major gains for them.

House of Representatives Races 2006

The House is a little more difficult to make sense of since there are 435 seats and all of them are up for grabs. I'll keep trying over the next few weeks, but here's the low-down so far. Democrats have a much better shot at regaining the majority here than in the Senate. I'll try to keep you posted on seats that are likely to change hands. As in the Senate, very few Dem seats are threatened.

Total number of seats: 435

Current Breakdown
202 Dem seats
231 Rep seats
1 indep seat (VT)
1 vacant seat (TX22 Tom Delay's old seat)

Dems need to pick up 16 seats and not lose any to have a majority.

According to the New York Times:
189 Safe Dem seats
17 Leaning Dem seats

• 189+17=206 (remember, the Dems only currently hold 202 seats)
• Which four are seen as likely to change? VT, IN8, NC11, IA1
  

16 Toss Up Seats - all are currently held by Republicans with the exception of TX22 - the seat from which Republican Tom DeLay resigned under pressure.

• AZ8-Repub Primary Sept 12
• CO7
• CT2
• CT4
• FL2
• IL6
• IN2
• IN9
• NM1
• NY24
• OH15
• OH18
• PA6
• TX22
• VA2
• WA8

Of the remaining seats,
21 Lean Rep
192 Safe Rep